This article from the
Asbury Park Press presents some disappointing local economic news:
"If there's one thing certain from the newest Census release, it's this: income in Monmouth County has fallen. But by how much depends on how you look at the data.
In the largest data release of the past 10 years, the Census Bureau data — the American Community Survey — shows median household income fell 3 percent to 6 percent between 1999 and 2009. Meanwhile, incomes in Ocean County remained largely flat.
However, because of the way the numbers are calculated, it's difficult to compare the apples in this year's data with the oranges from prior years.
Beginning this year, the Census Bureau will publish data every year for even the smallest municipality. Last year, data wasn't available for any city, borough or township with fewer than 20,000 people. The year before, the cutoff was 65,000 residents.
But unlike the census taken every 10 years — data from the 2010 Census will be released next year — the annual numbers are based on as much as five years of data.
The five-year averages for 2009 include data collected from 2005 to 2009, covering both the tail end of the housing boom and the subsequent crash of Wall Street and the housing market. For municipalities with fewer than 20,000 people, this is the only data available since the 2000 Census.
What's more, some data include huge margins of error that render the estimates almost meaningless.
Consider this: When adjusted for inflation, changes in household income from 1999 to 2009 fell most sharply in Allenhurst: between 21 percent and 44 percent. At the other end of the range, income in Loch Arbour increased about 27 percent.
Maybe. In Loch Arbor, for example, the Census Bureau estimated the 2009 median household income at $116,250, but that figure could be off by as much as $65,752. That means income could have increased by as much as 98 percent. Or it could have fallen by as much as 45 percent. For larger geographies, such as counties and some municipalities, the Census Bureau also puts out three-year averages, and one-year averages are available for counties and some municipalities with at least 65,000 people.
But those smaller time periods also come with larger margins of error. To try to gauge the impact of the housing crash and the sour economy on household income, the Asbury Park Press initially analyzed one-year data and calculated a drop in Monmouth County household income by as much as 9.8 percent between 2004 and 2009.
Russel Like, principal planner for the Monmouth County Planning Board, cautioned against using the one-year data because of the amount of error in those numbers. He also suggested comparing the five-year data released this week with data from the 2000 Census to further reduce the margin of error. 'I understand what you found in the numbers,' Like said. 'I just don't think they're all that reliable, and I would put a lot more faith in the five-year numbers.' Using that data, household income in Monmouth County fell 3.4 percent to 5.9 percent between 1999 and 2009. In Ocean County, income rose as much as 0.9 percent but could have fallen as much as 2.2 percent."
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 Census and 2005-2009 American Community Survey. 1999 dollars adjusted for inflation.
BY CHRISTOPHER SCHNAARS • STAFF WRITER • DECEMBER 14, 2010
732-643-4220; cschnaars@app.com
